The latest CFO Survey from Duke University and the Richmond and Atlanta Federal Reserve banks suggests strongly that the country’s C-suites aren’t panicking about the economy and their prospects for 2025. Sure, they’re grousing about the tariff-induced uncertainty—more than 30% put trade/tariffs among their top concerns compared to just 8% around last fall’s election—but they aren’t ratcheting down their growth expectations as a result.
For example: Among the nearly 400 executives responding from mid-February to early March, the average revenue growth forecast for this year was 6.8% compared to 7% last October and November. The median response hasn’t budged from its 5% level when CFOs were surveyed in the fall. Similarly, the index’s reading of executives’ optimism ticked down only slightly to 68.4 from 71.3. (For context: That 68.4 number is the same as the average of the index’s previous 10 readings going back to the fall of 2022.) And CFOs’ outlook for the U.S. economy only moved to 62.1 from 66.0.
It’s all very incremental—until we get to hiring plans.
All through 2024, CFOs had told Duke and Fed researchers they intended to grow their workforce this year by an average of about 3.5%, give or take a few tenths. Similarly, their median responses circled 2.4% throughout last year.
This time around? Those plans have stepped down to 2.5% at the mean and just 1.1% at the median. And looking to 2026, the CFOs responding to the survey expect their companies’ employment to grow by an average of 3% and a mean of 1.7%. Those out-year numbers are the lowest for hiring plans since the second quarter of 2023.
That’s a pretty serious tapping of the brakes and speaks to the idea that C-suites are returning to the frugal mindset that was very effective for them and for margins during the growth scare of 2022. When it comes to future signs that executives truly feel better about the macro outlook, seeing these readings return to their recent levels will be one we’ll weigh quite heavily.
For more information about The CFO Survey, click here. And for insights from a handful of some other recent business sentiment reports, check out this IndustryWeek story.
