CFOs: Cost issues persist but demand picture and hiring intentions tick up

The latest quarterly CFO Survey from Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve banks of Richmond and Atlanta suggests 2026’s economy could surprise in both positive and negative ways versus the consensus, which has GDP and hiring growing rather tepidly while inflation cools further.

First, the negative so we can wrap up on an upbeat note: The nearly 550 finance chiefs polled right after Thanksgiving don’t think price pressures are fading much. They expect their unit costs to climb an average of 4.5% versus 2025, which is 20 basis points higher than they were forecasting in late summer. And they think the prices they’ll pay for the products and services they need will climb an average of 4.2%. Perhaps more worryingly, the median response to that prices question climbed to 3.5% from 3.0% in Q3—i.e., a greater number of CFOs expect to pay more than before.

Now to the good stuff: The CFOs who responded said they expect their revenue this year to grow 7.6% on average. That’s up nicely from Q3’s 7.2%, although it’s worth noting that they trimmed their final forecast for 2025 to 7.0% from 7.8% three months earlier. Underpinning that solid outlook is broad optimism that 2026 will be better than lasts year: About 36% think demand for their companies’ products and services will increase slightly while roughly 10% think it will pick up “substantially.” Only 16% expect demand will slip in 2026.

Another heartening data point comes from executives’ outlook on employment. The average expected headcount growth in 2025 popped to 3.9% from 2.8% in Q3 and the forecast employment increase for this year ticked up to 2.4% from 2.2%. The median reading for this metric also reinforced a sense of broadening confidence, climbing to 1.7% from 1.3%.

Bring it on, we say.

To look over more data from the CFO Survey, click here. And to check out a collection of perspectives and information from other sources about what 2026 might bring from a macro perspective, check out this recent story over at ExecutiveEDGE.